The graph of coronavirus cases in India is increasing day by day. Around 10,000 cases started reporting per day from 12th June, and now the number of daily reported cases has crossed the 11,000 mark. This is currently a challenging situation for India. Meanwhile, a study was conducted by the Indian Council Of Medical Research (ICMR) told that the worst of the pandemic is yet to come.
Earlier, the peak was about to be observed in mid-July, but this new study by ICMR found that the lockdown shifted the peak by an estimated 34-76 days, which also helped the infection rate to come down by between 69% and 97% and gave us some time to collect resources and improve health infrastructures.
However, the study is disowned by ICMR, saying that it is misleading. The government’s top medical research body, ICMR tweeted “”The news reports attributing this study to ICMR are misleading. This refers to a non-peer reviewed modelling, not carried out by ICMR and does not reflect the official position of ICMR,”
The news reports attributing this study to ICMR are misleading. This refers to a non peer reviewed modelling, not carried out by ICMR and does not reflect the official position of ICMR. pic.twitter.com/OJQq2uYdlM
— ICMR (@ICMRDELHI) June 15, 2020
The earlier study said that “While lockdowns will delay the onset of peak and will give the much needed time for the health system to respond, strengthening the health system response in terms of testing, isolation of cases, treatment and contact tracing, as is being done currently, will have to be the mainstay to reduce the impact of the pandemic in India until vaccine becomes available,”
“In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 per cent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed”, the study said.
Also, according to an analysis done for the COVID-19 pandemic in India, the peak of coronavirus cases would come down by 70% and the increasing cases would come down by 27% as the additional capacity for treating, isolating and testing patients has been built up during this lockdown period. Also, 60% of deaths were prevented in terms of COVID-19 mortality.
On June 9th, ICMR also said that the health infrastructure for COVID-19 related health issues has been build up with 958 dedicated COVID-19 hospitals with 1,67,883 isolation beds, 21,614 ICU, and 73,469 oxygen supported beds. Also, more than 7,525 COVID Care Centres with 7,10,642 beds are now unengaged to fight COVID-19.